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College Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action.

Heading into the last week of the contest, blck rhino holds a slim three-point lead over Beast of the East, with 11 more players within 10 points. Congratulations to the leaders, and good luck to all!

Be sure to look for the updates to my rankings on the contest message board before making your final selections at locktime on Saturday morning.

Penn State versus Michigan State (10 points)

The Spartans emerged from their victory over Purdue with a bye week before a showdown with Penn State for a Rose Bowl berth. Iowa intervened, and now -- unless Michigan can upset Ohio State -- a Michigan State win in Happy Valley will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena, not the Spartans. This is still a significant game for the visitors, but while Mark Dantonio's team will certainly play well after a bye, the outcome is in the hands of the homestanding Lions. Penn State is clearly the superior team, with advantages in passing, rushing, defense and special teams. The loss at Iowa was devastating to this team, however, and is reminiscent of a 1999 loss to Minnesota that affected the players for the rest of their careers. Last week the Iowa hangover was on full display, as the Lions turned in a lackluster showing against Indiana. They barely led at the half while running a conservative scheme that scrapped the shotgun look of Jay Paterno's successful Spread HD in favor of a power-I attack. Paterno blamed the weather for the shift in offensive identity, but lack of confidence in play-calling has been an issue for this team in the past. We won't know until Saturday whether these coaches and players have regained their mojo, but early returns from practice are favorable. Struggling quarterback Darryl Clark especially seems to be in a new place mentally, a great sign for a Penn State team that's a class ahead of Michigan State and should win comfortably if it can put Iowa in the past.
Penn State 30-14

Utah versus BYU (9 points)

BYU hasn't met expectations in a string of uninspired wins since the two-time defending MWC champion's "Quest for Perfection" was lost at TCU. That defeat shattered the season's mission of capturing a BCS bid, and the Cougars haven't been the same since. The Utes were on the ropes against the Frogs as well, surrendering more than 200 yards in the first quarter before rallying in the final minute for a win even more improbable than the comeback against Oregon State. BYU has uncorked some miracle plays to nip the Utes at the buzzer in back-to-back Holy Wars. This year's game is being billed as a clash of near-equals. And it's true that on paper, the undefeated team has only a slim advantage. The underdog fares well in this series, as does the road team. Ten of the past 11 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. This year, however, one team clearly wants it more. The Utes have more to gain and more to lose and have demonstrated the heart to win big games. They will not be denied against the bubble-bursting Cougars, who went all-in on a fate better than a league title and exile to another pre-Christmas bowl game in Sin City.
Utah 31-15

Oklahoma versus Texas Tech (8 points)

It's a third straight "biggest game in school history" for the Red Raiders, who haven't been this close to a Big 12 title in Mike Leach's tenure. This already qualifies as a special season for Tech, and the unprecedented media attention leading up to the latest big game has become more of a distraction for the Raiders than it has for an Oklahoma squad that's been cruising past weaker opponents since a loss to Texas in mid-October. Sam Bradford and the Sooners' offense have been carrying a maligned defense since a knee injury claimed leading tackler Ryan Reynolds against Texas. Two senior defensive ends have gone down since then, but Brent Venables' unit has made quiet improvement each week. Bob Stoops' teams have always been able to contain Leach's attacks, and the Sooners' edge in defensive coaching looms large in a game that both teams enter off bye weeks. In this case, the open date did more for the host than the visitor. The past month's improvement in the running game makes things even easier for Bradford, and much as Tech did to Oklahoma State, the Sooners' offense will put unprecedented pressure on Graham Harrell and the Raiders' attack to keep up. Like the Cowboys, the Red Raiders are a much better team at home. In fact, Leach is 1-16 on the road against ranked teams. Oklahoma has coaching, home field, history and talent all on its side.
Oklahoma 48-28

Cincinnati versus Pittsburgh (7 points)

Pittsburgh has secured a bowl bid for the first time in the Dave Wannstedt era, but Cincinnati is the team in control of the Big East. The Bearcats have never beaten Pitt but would win the Big East title with two more wins. Only a visit from lowly Syracuse follows the Panthers on the Cats' Big East schedule, so the visit from Pitt is arguably the biggest game in program history. Brian Kelly, who is being wooed by Tennessee, is a skilled motivator and preparer who gives the host an advantage on the sideline. Pitt is the fresher team, as the Panthers are off a bye, while Cincinnati has been though a tough four-game stretch. Pitt's one-point September win over Iowa, however, is Wannstedt's only victory in six games after an open week. The coaching advantage lies with Kelly -- provided he hasn't spent all week thinking about a new life in Knoxville -- and that will be the difference in a game between two squads that are near-equals on paper.
Cincinnati 27-17

West Virginia at Louisville (6 points)

Neither of these teams is feeling too good about itself. The Cardinals have allowed an upset to Syracuse to send them into a tailspin for the second consecutive season, while the Mountaineers lost control of the Big East in a loss to Cincinnati two weeks ago. Both of these squads are merely average, but Louisville is less likely to rally. At home and on television last Friday, the Cards showed enough pride to make a stand against Cincinnati but came up short. It will be tough for a team that was already down to replicate that effort against favored West Virginia. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, have had a bye week to recover, and while nothing about this year's WVU edition screams "conference champion," the visitor should be more prepared to play than the down-and-out Cards. West Virginia's offense is averaging a pedestrian 354 yards per game and only 5.6 yards per play, so a blowout is unlikely. In fact, the Mountaineers have managed more yards only twice all year. Even an uninspired Louisville team could therefore hang around in this game, but the Cardinals' offense is even worse, and the visitor sports the better defense.
West Virginia 31-17

Arizona versus Oregon State (5 points)

This was the week that the mainstream media finally caught up with the fact that Oregon State has been in control of the Pac-10 for two months. Consequently, the Beavers have endured a deluge of attention this week. It's a bad time to be distracted from the task at hand, since Arizona is a quality team bent on atoning for last week's embarrassing performance at Oregon. The Wildcats are bowl-bound but are now hungry for more. Last week's complacent showing served as the team's wake-up call. If the Beavers bring anything less than their A-game, the Cats have the goods to put USC back on top of the league standings. Offensively, Arizona's production is nearly identical to Oregon State's, both through the air and on the ground. The defenses are also similar. Arizona may well be the more focused team here in this battle of equals, though the stakes are higher for the Beavers. The Wildcats have a huge special-teams edge and usually play much better at home.
Arizona 31-21

Stanford versus California (4 points)

The Cardinal won the Big Game last year, ending a five-year drought in the series and piling more misery on a California team that closed the regular season with losses in six of its last seven games. This year the Bears are out for revenge, but Stanford is again the hungrier team. A win means a bowl bid for the Cardinal in Jim Harbaugh's second year, the team's first since 2001. Stanford has an excellent chance to control the line of scrimmage in this rivalry tilt. The Cardinal offensive line has paved the way for 220 rushing yards per game, most by workhorse back Toby Gerhart. Cal counters with Jahvid Best, and Stanford's rush defense isn't as accomplished as the Bears' front seven. The Bears also throw the ball better than their rival, though not lately. Cal has averaged just 137 yards through the air during the past four games. This team has not been in good form recently, and with a minor bowl bid secured and a major one out of reach, the Bears can't really help themselves much with a win. Stanford, on the other hand, regards this as a program-changing game. Harbaugh is a better motivator than Jeff Tedford, and desire goes a long way in the trenches. Defense, Gerhart and excellent special teams play drive another Stanford win.
Stanford 24-17

Wake Forest versus Boston College (3 points)

This is a typical ACC matchup of solid defenses and subpar offenses. Boston College has gotten more from its running game in the past two weeks, but the passing game is still absent, producing barely five yards per pass play with Chris Crane under center. Veteran Wake Forest triggerman Riley Skinner has posted a much better TD/INT ratio than last season, but the Deacons also struggle to throw the ball down the field. Neither defense yields much, though the Eagles' stop unit has been more consistent. Skinner's experience and the home field give the Deacs a small edge in a matchup the home team has dominated since the Eagles joined the ACC.
Wake Forest 20-17

Vanderbilt versus Tennessee (2 points)

Vanderbilt has beaten Tennessee just once since 1983. That win came in 2006 and kept the 5-5 Volunteers from a winning season and bowl berth. This year's Vols already know they'll be home for the holidays, and motivation is tough to come by in Knoxville. Vanderbilt, though, has tremendous momentum. The Commodores' challenge will be to stay hungry after a win at Kentucky clinched the school's first bowl berth since 1982. With an open week to shake off the sick feeling of losing to Wyoming in Neyland Stadium, the Vols should have renewed some of their competitive spirit. There's still not much to play for, though, especially since a home date with Kentucky in Phil Fulmer's final game is up next. Jonathan Crompton will resume starting at quarterback, and star defensive back Eric Berry will see increased time on offense. Vandy has found its own crossover playmaker: Cornerback D.J. Moore caught two touchdown passes against Kentucky. Even with the newcomers, these are poor offenses. Both teams average a mere 268 yards per game on the year, and neither will be able to move the ball consistently. Tennessee does boast the better run defense, but I'll lean to the homestanding Dores over a downtrodden Vols squad that's playing out the string.
Vanderbilt 17-14

Maryland versus Florida State (1 point)

The Terrapins (along with next week's opponent, Boston College) are in control of the ACC Atlantic Division after beating North Carolina at home last week. However, the Terps haven't yet impressed in back-to-back games since league play began. Florida State comes to town off a demoralizing home loss to the Eagles that cost the Seminoles their place in the ACC race. Now the Noles will need everything to break just right to land in the league title game. The team's mood after the BC loss was just as somber as it was after this year's Wake Forest embarrassment, but coaches say the players have bounced back well in practice this week. If so, that could be trouble for a Maryland team that's Florida State's equal on the offensive side of the ball but can't match the visitors' playmakers on defense. Mickey Andrews' unit has allowed just 276 yards per game this year, and no team has topped 201 yards passing on this defense. This week, however, Florida State is short two starting safeties. Star Myron Rolle will miss at least part of the game to interview for the Rhodes Scholarship, while senior Darius McClure injured his knee celebrating an interception last week. The shorthanded secondary will have difficulty containing Maryland wideout Darius Heyward-Bey. The Noles will likely get some good news on offense, though, as the five wide receivers suspended for last week's game are expected to be reinstated for this one. Their return is key for quarterback Christian Ponder, who has struggled this year against zone defenses like Maryland's. This game figures to be tight, but I'll go with the Turtles, playing on their home turf, to pull within a game of the ACC Atlantic title.
Maryland 24-21

Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.